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In the first half of 2018, the textile industry generally showed a steady development momentum, and the domestic and international market demand was generally stable and better. In the first half of the year, the added value of the textile industry increased by 2.8% year-on-year. The growth rate of the added value of the former industry was slow, the growth rate of the added value of the downstream industry accelerated, the production capacity and supply structure of the industry were optimized, and the pace of structural adjustment continued to deepen. In the complicated external environment, the overall economic performance of the textile industry in the first half of the year was: exports maintained growth, domestic sales grew well, production growth slowed down, and operational efficiency was stable. This is the news that the reporter got from the analysis meeting of the economic operation of the textile industry in the first half of 2018 held by the China Textile Industry Federation on August 7.
Gao Yong pointed out at the meeting that in the first half of the year, the situation of China's textile industry could be described as "stable".
The analysis of the analysis trend in the second half of the year can be described as "change". From the perspective of textile raw materials, the cotton policy has been adjusted; from the market perspective, domestic consumption may be slightly lower than the first half. Sino-US trade friction has not yet had a direct impact on China's exports to the United States, the main category of home textiles and clothing. For the future trend of Sino-US trade friction, the industry should closely observe and calmly respond.
China's textile industry is the most market-oriented industry, especially China's garment industry, which has been moving outward since a few years ago. Some large companies are actively engaged in global distribution overseas. From an industry perspective, in the current critical period of change, the most important thing is to do the core work of industrial upgrading and structural optimization.
Overall operation of the industry
In the first half of this year, the world economy accelerated and the domestic economy stabilized and created a relatively good market demand environment. China's textile and apparel export and domestic market generally achieved good growth, providing fundamental support for the textile industry to maintain a stable operation. The textile industry has intensively promoted supply-side structural reforms. The characteristics of high-quality development are more obvious. The economic indicators such as production, sales, efficiency, and investment all show structural adjustment characteristics, and the operational quality and efficiency have improved compared with the first quarter.
The industry's prosperity is stable and there is a steady increase in sales both inside and outside.
In the first half of the year, the textile industry's prosperity was generally stable, and the second quarter was better than the first quarter. According to the results of the follow-up survey conducted by the China Textile Association, the industry sentiment index continued to be in the expansion range in the first half of the year. The second quarter's prosperity index was 60.9, an increase of 3.6 points from the first quarter.
The domestic demand market grew steadily, and the growth rate of network channels increased significantly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and needles above designated size increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 1.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The retail sales of online clothing in the country increased by 24.1% year-on-year. Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 3.3 percentage points. The domestic sales growth of textiles and garments was better than that of the previous year. On the one hand, it was related to China's overall macroeconomic stability and rapid growth of residents' income. On the other hand, it also reflected the remarkable achievements of the textile industry in optimizing supply structure and effectively meeting domestic demand.
The total export volume of the industry maintained a growth trend and the textile competitiveness was stable. According to Customs Express data, in the first half of the year, the total export volume of textiles and apparel (excluding Chapter 94) was US$127.52 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1% higher than the same period of the previous year. Among them, textiles showed stable international competitiveness and good export growth. Exports in the first half of the year increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The proportion of total exports increased from 42.8% in the same period of last year to 45.7. %; garment export pressure increased, export volume decreased by 2% year-on-year, 3.4 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year, and its proportion decreased from 57.2% in the same period of last year to 54.3%.
The overall quality of the industry has improved. In the first half of the year, the sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.7%, slightly lower than 0.1 percentage points in the same period of last year, up 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter of this year; the turnover rate of finished products was 18.4 times/year, up 2.6% year-on-year; total assets The turnover rate was 1.4 times per year, which was basically the same as that of the same period of last year. The ratio of three fees was 6.9%, slightly higher than 1 percentage point in the same period of last year and 0.2 percentage points lower than the first quarter of this year.
Production growth rate stabilized and slowed down, investment growth rebounded slightly
The construction of the textile industry is basically normal, and the growth rate of production is gradually slowing down. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the utilization rate of the textile industry in the first half of the year was 81.1%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year; the capacity utilization rate of the chemical fiber industry was 81.7%, a slight slowdown of 1.2 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. The industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8% year-on-year, the growth rate slowed by 2.5 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, and slowed by 0.8 percentage points compared with the first quarter; the industrial added value of textile machinery industry grew fastest among all sub-sectors, the first half of the year The growth rate of production in the terminal chain of the industrial chain was more stable. The industrial added value of the home textile, industrial textiles and clothing industry increased by 6.2%, 7.8% and 4.5% respectively.
The growth rate of industry investment rebounded slightly from the previous month. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the completion of fixed assets investment in the textile industry in the first half of the year increased by 1.3% year-on-year. Although the growth rate slowed by 7.8 percentage points from the same period of last year, it ended the negative growth trend this year, and the growth rate rebounded from the first quarter. Percentage points. Among them, the chemical fiber industry was driven by the improvement of efficiency and investment confidence. The investment volume in the first half of the year increased by 28.2% year-on-year, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, which was 26.9 percentage points higher than the whole industry.
The normal uncertainties of the macro fundamentals remain to be observed
Looking forward to the second half of 2018, the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad will generally continue to maintain a stable recovery. The fundamentals of stable growth of the domestic and overseas markets have not changed, and the textile industry is expected to maintain a basically stable operation in the second half of the year. On the international front, employment in developed economies has improved, approaching the level of full employment, driving consumer confidence to rise, and international market demand has maintained inertia. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank recently forecast that the global economic growth rate in 2018 will be 3.9% and 3.1%, respectively, both not lower than the growth level in 2017, and the external demand situation in the textile industry is generally stable. Domestically, in the second half of the year, China's macroeconomic operation will remain stable overall, and stable employment will provide basic support for income growth and consumption expansion; consumer confidence is at a relatively high level, which can provide a basis for predicting the steady growth of domestic demand in the second half of the year. The macro-control policy is more focused on expanding domestic demand, and domestic consumption of textiles and clothing is expected to maintain steady growth.
In the second half of the year, the complexity of the macro-environment at home and abroad has increased, and the risk factors have increased. However, overall, the textile industry will not be affected. Since the beginning of this year, Sino-US trade friction has continued to escalate, the uncertainty of the trade environment has risen, and the export pressure of the textile industry has also increased. However, the list of tax increases announced by the United States has not yet covered a large proportion of export products such as clothing and home textiles, and the tax increase has not yet entered the implementation stage. Therefore, it is expected that the textile industry will not have a major impact during the year. External risks such as the global liquidity contraction caused by the US interest rate hike still need a certain process to show the impact. The international market demand has slowed down in the short term, but the fundamentals have not changed. The external demand environment of the textile industry is still stable.
